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As summer is waning, the NFL is waxing — and, in my metaphorical hemisphere, will totally eclipse the stupidity that is our endlessly waxing election cycle. So before the preseason begins tonight, and before the regular season begins in September, I’m going to make my Broncos astrological predictions.
Overall, I predict the Broncos will continue their low orbit in fourth place in the AFC West. The three other teams have been getting stronger, with San Diego at its zenith (or possibly just past it), Kansas City a rising star with last year’s AFC West victory, and Oakland now able to overcome its Al Davis-led gravitational collapse. So my general prediction for the AFC West is 1. Kansas City, 2. San Diego, 3. Oakland, 4. Denver. Pretty much the same as last year, the larger question being whether KC or SD is No. 1.
Caveat: These predictions are solely based on Kyle Orton as our starting QB. If we put Tebow in, I predict the International Astronomical Union will downgrade Denver to dwarf planet, like Pluto, and S&P will downgrade it to Arena League. And the thing about Tebow isn’t that he’s not a nice guy (he is) or that he doesn’t work hard (he does) or that I’m ashamed of his pro-life views (I’m ambivalent, but leave them out of the NFL, please); it’s that nearly all the great quarterbacks sat back awhile and watched from the sidelines as better QBs led. Very, very few recent rookie/first-year QBs have done well: Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco being two that come to mind. But there are many more busts or mehs: JaMarcus Russell, for one (a supernova if there ever were); Brady Quinn (also a Bronco; frak!), Matt Leinart, Brodie Croyle, Tarvaris Jackson, Matthew Stafford. Sure, most of those guys were on low-caliber teams — but what is Denver right now? I love my Broncos but all systems are not a go.
Furthermore, it doesn’t help that Denver finished 31 out of 32 teams last year, and hired the coach of the 32nd team. (There’s a Challenger metaphor that would be inappropriate here.) Sure, Fox’s old team, Carolina, was looking to scuttle and start anew and didn’t want to start with an outgoing coach. But a 2-14 record? Come on. I haven’t kept abreast of Fox’s current contract but by Apollo it better be full of incentives. The guy’s overall record is 78-74-0. Not exactly Super Bowl caliber, even if he has been to one (Panthers lost to Pats ’03 season/’04 SB). I know head coach pickings were slim last year, but I would almost’ve preferred another year with McDaniels. Almost.
So. With all that said, and looking at Denver’s draft class, I’m hoping we at least pull an 8-8 record this year.
Preseason
@Dallas
Buffalo
Seattle
@Arizona
My prediction: 2-2, who knows (or cares) which two. Could be any of ‘em. That’s a weak/middling schedule and preseason means nothing, except we hope to see Denver get off the ground.
Regular Season
Oakland (wrong — loss)
Cincinnati (wrong — win)
@Tennessee (wrong — loss)
@Green Bay (loss — correct)
San Diego (loss — correct)
Bye
@Miami (win — correct)
Detroit (wrong — loss)
@Oakland (win — correct)
@Kansas City (wrong — win)
New York Jets
@San Diego
@Minnesota
Chicago
New England
@Buffalo
Kansas City
Bolded are my rather hopeful predictions. Honestly, though, even getting to 8-8 is going to be tough.
The regular season has some interesting points: That stretch in the middle starting in Miami is a killer. Denver plays five out of seven games on the road — ouch. They’ll be coming off a bye, but that’s still pretty grueling. And one of the teams they’ll be playing at home, the Jets, is nothing to laugh at, unless we’re talking about Rex Ryan’s foot fetish. So while I predict they’ll start out well on the road, I can’t see them holding up. And then coming home to face Chicago and New England? Ugh — and moreso because Jay Cutler, who left Denver thanks to the the planetary alignment of former Bronco coach Josh McDaniels and both men’s egos, will surely be arriving in Denver with a bit of a chip on his shoulder (and, depending on the season, what could be a bittersweet welcome from fans like me who miss his rocket arm dearly). The football gods are not shining on Denver these days.
Fortunately, the season ends with Buffalo and Kansas City, two potential wins if Buffalo is its usual self and KC has already wrapped the AFC No. 1 spot. So it could be at least mildly uplifting, if not, well, liftoff.
So here’s my prayer to the Mile-High heavens: Denver, just don’t embarrass me. No blowout losses (especially at home) and no shut-out losses. When you lose, at least keep the game exciting.
In the name of the Rockies, cold beer, and John Elway, amen.
I came by my blog to update my Broncos predictions and realized I had never published them — like so many things, they lingered in the “Recent Drafts” folder for too long. So you’ll just have to trust me about being right insofar as the first six games go. And if you don’t, I won’t care, so there’s that, too.
Anyway, here’s the schedule and my predictions (bolded) and the results (bolded if correct):
Broncos @ Jacksonville — L 24-17
Seattle @ Denver — W 31-14
Indy @ Denver — L 27-13
Denver @ Tennessee — W 26-20
Denver @ Baltimore — L 31-17
Jets @ Denver — L 24-20
Oakland @ Denver
Denver @ SF (in London!)
-bye-
KC @ Denver
Denver @ SD
Rams @ Denver
Denver @ KC
Denver @ Arizona
Denver @ Oakland
Houston @ Denver
San Diego @ Denver
As you can see, I am optimistic about the latter part of the season: since the AFC West is playing the NFC West this year, it’s like the Mediocrity Bowl week after week (you hear that, Seahawks and 49er fans?), and Denver is pretty good on the road in the west. They will, of course, win in San Diego, as they often do, and then lose at home at the end of the season to assure San Diego its playoff spot. *sigh*
So far I’m 6-0 on guesses (again, you’ll have to take my word), which is small comfort when the Broncos are 2-4 and will end up, in my overly optimistic estimation, 10-6.
Well. The Broncos are playing the Chargers, and I can’t believe I’m wishing Kyle Orton — Kyle Orton! — were starting for Denver. So…while I am nominally watching the game (Broncos are down 7-0 as I write), allow me to wax practical on the current geographic NFL divisions. Suffice it to say, the current divisions are very geographically inefficient, as you can see below:
Color key: Red = west teams, green = north, blue = south, purple = east
It is ridiculous that Minnesota, Dallas, and Houston are all farther west than St. Louis, yet St. Louis is in the NFC West division. Speaking of Dallas, it’s in the NFC East division, and Miami, the southernmost team, is equally ridiculously grouped with three northeastern teams. And just look at how much travel must be done within the two western conferences as compared to, say, the NFC or AFC North teams.
I’m not saying the geography and resulting travel time matter a great deal, but if it did — say for energy conservation reasons, or just the general fairness of teams having unequal travelling time — what could the divisions look like? Here are a few options:
1. Geographically efficient.
There is no perfect layout, but this is one of the most geographically efficient. (One team in the west sticks out like a sore thumb no matter how you lay it out.)
2. Nice and neat…except the northwest.
3. Preservation
This preserves the idea of North/South/East/West conferences in a way the first option doesn’t, and it also preserves some divisional rivalries, such as DEN-OAK-KC, MIN-GB-CHI, CLE-CIN, WASH-PHIL, BUF-NYJ-NE, and CAR-ATL.
4. Longitude:
If we’re just going by longitude — and I see no reason to do so; this is just for curiosity — this is how it would break down.
With the arrival of Lucy, you’d think I’d be writing about her on here more often. And I assure you, I will — if anyone can get on STFUparents for writing about their pet, that’ll be me. Currently, however, she’s sleeping off her vaccination shot, so I’m reading up on what I haven’t heard about in the past few days (puppies are demanding!).
So today, partly because of Lucy, I’m thinking about Michael Vick’s reinstatement into the NFL. For those of you who haven’t heard, he was convicted of financing a dogfighting ring and sentenced to two years in jail. He’s recently gotten out, and yesterday he signed with the Philadelphia Eagles (who, it should be noted, already have a capable quarterback in the form of Donovan McNabb; Vick will presumably be the backup, as it’s uncertain when he’ll be eligible to play during the season — NFL commissioner Roger Goodell hasn’t ruled on that yet). Many people have opinions on whether or not Vick should be able to return to the NFL after having been convicted of a felony, and they base these opinions on a variety of reasons, from the simple “he’s a felon!” fact to more nuanced notions of leadership and example.
My opinion — and it’s hard to say this as Lucy snoozes in her kennel, snoring like a foghorn — is that Michael Vick showed unspeakable cruelty toward animals that just makes my stomach turn, but he served his time, and he should be able to return to the NFL. It was, after all, his job prior to his sentence, and as his crime was not related to his career, I don’t see a problem with him returning (i.e. I would not want a convicted arsonist to become a firefighter).
What I do have a problem with is him returning to the NFL and being awarded a $1.6m contract with an option for $5.2m in bonuses. According to ESPN’s Lester Munson, Vick could actually earn $9.8m over two years. While I understand that Vick has debts to take care of as well as a fiancee and two children to provide for, I don’t think he deserves a million-dollar salary, however far below his record salary when he signed with the Falcons it may be. That comparison is moot, in my opinion, because Vick has not practiced in two years and is therefore unproven, and because it is — or it should be — a privilege to play in the NFL. Kids all over the country make role models out of athletes, and I believe that status should be earned.
What I would rather have seen is Vick be offered a base rookie salary — I think this is somewhere around $190,000 a year. Let him earn his way back to stardom, not become complacent — as he did on his first try — with all the money and fame. If he has to file for bankruptcy, so be it. Many of Vick’s problems stemmed from financing his friends and family members, and now that he’s got seven digits of income, he’ll start getting hit up for loans again.
I hope he cleans up. I hope he gets his game on and is a success in the NFL, in his kids’ lives, and in his own. Mostly I hope he becomes the role model he used to be for millions of kids, and this time I hope it’s genuine. I hope he one day deserves a multimillion-dollar salary. I just don’t think he does yet.
